Quantitative evaluation of lesion response heterogeneity for superior prognostication of clinical outcome

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Standardized reporting of treatment response in oncology patients has traditionally relied on methods like RECIST, PERCIST and Deauville score. These endpoints assess only a few lesions, potentially overlooking the response heterogeneity of all disease. This study hypothesizes that comprehensive spatial-temporal evaluation of all individual lesions is necessary for superior prognostication of clinical outcome. Methods [18F]FDG PET/CT scans from 241 patients (127 diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and 114 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)) were retrospectively obtained at baseline and either during chemotherapy or post-chemoradiotherapy. An automated TRAQinform IQ software (AIQ Solutions) analyzed the images, performing quantification of change in regions of interest suspicious of cancer (lesion-ROI). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) models were trained to predict overall survival (OS) with varied sets of quantitative features and lesion-ROI, compared by bootstrapping with C-index and t-tests. The best-fit model was compared to automated versions of previously established methods like RECIST, PERCIST and Deauville score. Results Multivariable CoxPH models demonstrated superior prognostic power when trained with features quantifying response heterogeneity in all individual lesion-ROI in DLBCL (C-index = 0.84, p < 0.001) and NSCLC (C-index = 0.71, p < 0.001). Prognostic power significantly deteriorated (p < 0.001) when using subsets of lesion-ROI (C-index = 0.78 and 0.67 for DLBCL and NSCLC, respectively) or excluding response heterogeneity (C-index = 0.67 and 0.70). RECIST, PERCIST, and Deauville score could not significantly associate with OS (C-index < 0.65 and p > 0.1), performing significantly worse than the multivariable models (p < 0.001). Conclusions Quantitative evaluation of response heterogeneity of all individual lesions is necessary for the superior prognostication of clinical outcome.