Risk Assessment of Kidney Disease Progression and Efficacy of SGLT2 Inhibition in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To develop a risk assessment tool to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at higher risk for kidney disease progression and who might benefit more from sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 41,204 patients with T2D from four Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) clinical trials were divided into derivation (70%) and validation cohorts (30%). Candidate predictors of kidney disease progression (composite of sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], end-stage kidney disease, or kidney death) were selected with multivariable Cox regression. Efficacy of dapagliflozin was assessed by risk categories (low: <0.5%; intermediate: 0.5 to <2%; high: ≥2%) in Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE)-TIMI 58. RESULTS There were 695 events over a median follow-up of 2.4 years. The final model comprised eight independent predictors of kidney disease progression: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, T2D duration, glycated hemoglobin, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and hemoglobin. The c-indices were 0.798 (95% CI, 0.774–0.821) and 0.798 (95% CI, 0.765–0.831) in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plot slope (deciles of predicted vs. observed risk) was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93–1.04) in the validation cohort. Whereas relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin did not differ across risk categories, there was greater absolute risk reduction in patients with higher baseline risk, with a 3.5% absolute risk reduction in kidney disease progression at 4 years in the highest risk group (≥1%/year). Results were similar with the 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium risk prediction model. CONCLUSIONS Risk models for kidney disease progression can be applied in patients with T2D to stratify risk and identify those who experience a greater magnitude of benefit from SGLT2 inhibition.