Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes May Be Underestimated in the Chinese Population: Evidence From 21.7 Million People Between 2007 and 2017

Abstract

OBJECTIVE Previous reports of the annual incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in China were conducted using retrospective hospital cases, which may not reflect the reality. This longitudinal study estimated T1D incidence in a Chinese population of 21.7 million from 2007 to 2017. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A population-based registry of T1D was performed by the Beijing Municipal Health Commission Information Center. Annual incidence and 95% CIs were calculated by age group and sex. The association of sex with T1D incidence and predicted new cases of T1D were assessed using Poisson regression models. Annual percentage change and average annual percentage of change were assessed using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS Overall, there were 6,875 individuals who developed T1D from 2007 to 2017 in this population. T1D incidence (/100,000 persons) (95% CI) significantly increased from 2.72 (2.51, 2.93) in 2007 to 3.60 (3.38, 3.78) in 2017 (P < 0.001). The T1D onset peak was in the 10–14-year-old age group. While no significant trend was found in the 0–14- and 15–29-year-old age groups, T1D incidence markedly increased from 1.87 to 3.52 in the ≥30-year-old age group (P < 0.05). The prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis was highest in the 0–4-year-old age group. We predicted new cases of T1D will increase 1.57-fold over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS T1D incidence in this large Chinese population is higher than has been reported previously. From 2007 to 2017, although the incidence peak was in the 10–14-year age group, the T1D incidence increased sharply in adults but not in youth.